Friday, May 2, 2008

Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Me

When is global warming not global warming?

The PC reference is now to global "climate change". The latest data indicates that the global temperature has been stable since roughly 1999. One possible reason is the now confirmed state change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. According to NASA, the PDO involves a much larger extent of the ocean than nino/nina variations do, and its effect is superimposed upon them as well as upon CO2 based effects. And it can last for 20 -30 years. The PDO was in a warm state, and is now confirmed to be in a cool state.

So in a sense, CO2 emissions have helped nullify the effect of an impending "little ice age", which would have occured if the PDO were the only effect on the climate.

It appears that everything that has been blamed on global warming for the past 8 or 9 years just hasn't been so because there has been no warming of the globe for that period. This is not to say that the CO2 effect is or is not a real concern. It does tend to say that the computer models are not effective if they don't include all the variables. What other undiscovered variables play into this? The unknowns include solar activity, which is empirically shown but denied by GW alarmists.

All this plus the functional science manipulation by the IPCC makes the global warming disaster scenario seem weaker and more political than ever. And the onerous habit of equating dissenters from the GW scenarios to holocaust deniers causes one to develop a muscular skepticism of the whole show. In the end, Chicken Little was no hero.

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