Saturday, December 19, 2009

Copenhagen

It’s really hard to discern the impact of the Copenhagen circus, because it’s hard to know what really happened. Different journalists came away with different impressions. Here’s what seems to be common:

1. The major players, USA, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, put together an agreement.

2. The agreement was not approved by the full membership: it is not legally binding.

3. The agreement, however, was allowed a “procedural” acknowledgement in the form of being “noted” by the Parliamentarian, meaning that it could have de facto policy force, if not official.

4. It seems to be acknowledged that the U.S. will need to pay China to support China’s efforts to reduce it’s emissions.

5. Neither the EU nor the minor players were consulted. Tuvalu, Sudan, Venezuela, Cuba, (called “ankle-biters by one journalist) were denied the opportunity to hold the agreement hostage, and came away enraged and “lashing”.

6. Called both an Obama failure and an Obama victory, it seems to put the USA directly in the debtor’s seat.

A summary of the agreement according to Keith Schneider is here:
“The Copenhagen Accord contains these provisions that President Obama called a start to global action to solve climate change:

1. A commitment by developed nations to invest $30 billion over the next three years to help developing nations adapt to climate change and pursue clean energy development.

2. A provisional commitment by developed nations to develop a long-term $100 billion global fund by 2020 to assist developing nations to respond to climate change and become part of the clean energy economic transition.

3. Establishing a goal to pursue emissions reductions that are sufficient to keep the rise in global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius.

4. Pledges by nations to commit to concrete emissions reductions, though the specific levels of reduction were not set.

5. A general goal to subject participating countries to international review of their progress under the accord.

6. Providing diplomatic space for the United States and China to work together to solve climate change.

7. A commitment to complete an assessment of the effectiveness of the accord in reducing emissions by the end of 2015.

No comments: