Sunday, January 17, 2010

Analysis: Argument From Authority

Yesterday I posted my list of definitions and assumptions to be considered as bearing upon the question of the Argument From Authority and its validity.

Absent any criticism of the definitions and assumptions, an analysis follows. I am sure that you will feel free to critique, and then we can discuss it:

Statement of the issue:
(In opinions on topic Z) We must submit to (the opinions of ) authority (on topic Z).
First the auxiliary verb, “must”, is an imperative, expressing command, requirement, obligation, or necessity”. [Merriam-Webster, 2004]

As an imperative, it is not possible to deviate from the dictates of the principle stated, without acquiring some unstated consequence, presumably in this case, lack of intellectual respect, at a minimum. Regardless of the consequence, the statement presents a rigid, absolute requirement to be observed in argumentation. This does not refer to requirements for obtaining empirical, first order data or any other empirical activity. It is merely a tactic of argumentation.


Assumptions about us:

a) We have less knowledge/expertise than the authority.
Assumption “a)” is not provable, empirically, without serious testing. However, as a presupposition it is difficult to argue against.

b) We are unable to attain sufficient knowledge/expertise to adequately comprehend and analyze topic Z.
Assumption “b)” is an arrogation that is likely false in many cases, while true in others; this makes it a “false association fallacy”. However, this is a powerful argumentative attack on the opponent, which has the value of derailing the conversation, while denigrating the opponent’s abilities as presumed through credentialing. This has no bearing on the actual validity of the opponent’s arguments.

As an argumentation tactic, this is intended to be a show-stopper. As a logical proposition, it has no bearing whatsoever on Topic Z.


Assumptions about the authority:

a) The authority demonstrably has adequate intelligence, with training and experience in Topic Z.
This concern is valid, and easily demonstrated.

b) The authority demonstrably is intellectually honest and demonstrably capable in analytics.
This concern is valid, and not easily validated; therefore, it is a possible exception.

c) The authority is motivated solely by the pursuit of knowledge, without ulterior motivations, including but not exclusive to: messiahism, fame and fortune.
This concern is valid, and even less verifiable except by observing the long term behaviors of the “authority”, not all of which might be visible. This is definitely an exception.

d) The authority’s opinion is within the overwhelming majority opinion of others, similarly attributed. There is no credible dissent.
Here the argument of the qualification of the “majority” comes into play. If the authority in question holds any power (say peer review and ability to publish) over the definition of the composition of the “majority”, then this is definitely an exception.

e) The authority (and majority) operate within acceptable practices of open scholarship and replication under the scientific method.
This is a valid criterion.

Assumptions about the discussion:

a) The discussion is in the form of an argument, not in the form of analyzing data, data interpretation, experimental methods, etc.
The imperative cannot be considered to exist within the definition of the Scientific Method, so this statement is valid.

b) The discussion can be in the apparent form of a single premise syllogism.
Valid assumption.


Assumptions about Topic Z:

a) Topic Z is of the appearance of complexity and data acquisition which is outside the boundary of availability to the “us” in the argument.
This presumption is without merit as a general principle; it might apply in some cases, not in others. A fallacy of false association.

b) Topic Z has been described adequately by genuine and unbiased scientific method investigation. Data is scrupulously produced and maintained. Data is genuinely analyzed and not manipulated toward a conclusion. There is no authoritative doubt remaining in the topic.
This is never a presumption concerning scientific method discoveries; objective replication is always required. This is not a valid presumption for argumentation, either, unless objective replication is done.


c) All data is readily available to potential replicators; replication of data-taking (new data) can be independently taken in order to fulfill the necessity of attempting falsification.
The first part of this premise may be asserted if undeniable evidence for its validity is available.

The second part is an undeniable requirement of empiricism, and should be a requirement for valid argumentation.

Now, what do we have?

Considering that there are numerous valid qualifications concerning the application of the absolute imperative statement, then the statement cannot be absolute. Why should it be considered imperative, concerning the qualifications that must be met for it to be a valid prescription for behavior? In other words, what motivates the use of such an device in argumentation?

The device does not present information concerning the Topic. It is a fundamental attack on the opponent, with an underlying presupposition of the opponent’s non-qualifications: an Ad Hominem Abusive. In John Locke’s terms, it is intended to induce shame and retreat.


It also is intended to derail the conversation, even halt it: a Red Herring.

From Walton, "Appeal To Expert Opinion":
” Jeremy Bentham describes the qualifications for authority:

1. adequate intelligence.
2. relative probity (honesty).
3. closeness of the opinion to the subject at hand.
4. fidelity of transmission; correctness and completeness.

He also includes expertise, with the claim that the ratio of knowledge of a subject between two individuals inversely determines the need to trust the authority figure. Yet he also claims that if objective “direct evidence” is available, then the persisting appeal to authority is fallacious.

The argument is designed to leave no room for reply; it is an attack on the other’s personal ability to judge evidence; it deflects the argument from evidence into the qualifications of the authority vs those of the respondent; it is Ad Hominem: “well, you’re not an expert, are you?”; an accusation of arrogance.

Rather than an assertion of a valid evidentiary proposition regarding the subject, it is, “…more like a decisive blocking or shutting-down type of move in argumentation that blocks off the respondent’s ability to raise any further questions or meaningfully or effectively take part in attempting to support his side of the issue any further in the dialogue.”
(from "Appeal To Expert Opinion"; Douglas N. Walton, referred by Martin)(emphasis added)
In terms of logic and a rational search for valid answers, the Argument from Authority seems conclusively to be at odds with that pursuit. So it cannot be a valid position to assert in that pursuit.

In terms of winning an argument by forcing the default of the opponent, the Argument from Authority seems to be effective, IFF the opponent accepts the challenge without protest. I personally do not accept the Argument From Authority Imperative/Directive as a valid challenge.

However, within any rational pursuit, the input of authorities is always a wise thing to seek, providing the conditions above are met. In some (many?) cases the opinions of experts vary to the point of direct contradiction and in some cases experts might not fulfill the qualifications required of them as stated above. In these cases other sources of information must be sought.

Comments appreciated, as always.

7 comments:

sonic said...

so far so good...

Stan said...

OK then.

Martin said...

>(In opinions on topic Z) We must submit to (the opinions of ) authority (on topic Z).

I would not word this that way at all. There is no "must" and "submit" is too strong of a term.

When authorities on topic Z make an assertion, and amateurs on topic Z make an assertion diametrically opposed to authorities, the authorities are more likely to hold the position that is true.

This can be illustrated by imagining a person who speaks Chinese fluently and is an expert on Chinese culture and history vs a person who has only an intermediate level in Chinese and no expertise on culture and history.

If the two translate a complex Chinese text, and come to completely different translations, the former expert is more likely to have the correct interpretation than the latter amateur, since translating a text doesn't just require knowledge of the language but also the nuances of dialects, small talk, pop culture, etc. I.e., the expert can make use of his background knowledge in making a more accurate translation.

Case in point: "hide the decline." Those with a background in climate science (i.e., experts) recognize the "decline" as being slang for the tree ring divergence problem and thus are able to properly assess the email as being about that. Amateurs (i.e. non-experts) have no idea that "decline" is slang for the divergence problem, and indeed aren't even aware of the existence of the divergence problem. He cannot properly assess what the email is about. And that's where it should stop, but since he has a hole in his knowledge, he applies his own confirmation bias (that global warming is a fraud) to it, and thus the term becomes about manipulation of the surface temperature record. If he had been an expert, he could have formed a more valid opinion.

Stan said...

Martin,
Well, except for one thing, maybe two. You persistently took the position that my opinion was of no value because I could not possibly form an educated or informed opinion, so there was to be no criticism of the experts. The conversation hinged around that issue for quite awhile, having been dragged off track just as the post states. De-emphasizing the imperative won't work here, because the overall effect of the assertion was the same: to disqualify non-expert opinion and to derail the conversation. This was emphasized with numerous examples of experts whose credentials and products couldn't be questioned, unless I renounced using the experts on the list. This is an imperative.

"Hide the decline" refers to the practice of using part of the tree ring data when it suits "the story" and not using the other part of the data when it does not conform to "the story". So they cherry picked the data, using tree rings up until circa 1998, and then when the ring data didn't conform, they didn't use the tree ring data beyond that point. Thus they were able to conceal the trend they didn't wish to promote: they hid the decline. Intellectual fraud.

You might claim that others make too much of this fraud by being ignorant, biased and extrapolating; that is not the point of this post, nor was it the original point of our conversation iirc. Bringing "others" into the equation dilutes the issue into an ungraspable miasma. I insist on keeping the subject clear and well defined, and responsive only to your charges earlier regarding me, not others.

sonic said...

I think the use of experts is best when we agree on their conclusions and can use that to narrow the discussion to areas of actual dispute.
More often I see it used as you say Stan-- that is to shut down the discussion.

Martin said...

>You persistently took the position that my opinion was of no value because I could not possibly form an educated or informed opinion, so there was to be no criticism of the experts.

I may word things unclearly at times, so apologies if this is the impression you took. My position is exactly what I said above with the Chinese analogy. The amateur is perfectly allowed to criticize the expert as much as he wants; it's just that of the two, the one with an extensive background in the subject is more likely to be right.

Most of my criticism of your AGW posts do not even go that far; if you contested AGW, you would not hear a peep from me. Richard Lindzen is a climate scientist who does research on water vapor and whether they play a larger role in warming than CO2 does. Great! Skepticism is good! Link to his scientific research and you wouldn't hear from me. Granted, he's a lone wolf, but there is a chance he could be right and I have no grounds to criticize him.

However, if you write a post attacking AGW for a position it does not hold then I'll criticize you for it.

Example: saying that CO2 and temperature does not always have a one-on-one correlation, therefore CO2 is not causing warming. Since AGW is not concluded from looking at correlation, but from measuring radiative forcing, you are attacking a version of AGW that does not exist.

If you were an expert in climate science, you would know that natural variations temporarily override the anthropogenic signal, and that CO2 radiative forcing is the core argument of AGW, not any patterns discerned from looking at temperature graphs. And thus, you would not make those mistakes.

Another example: Dawkins' argument against God. It's not even logically valid, and many of the premises don't withstand even a judicial appraisal, and he has received much criticism from even atheist philosophers.

I would argue that this is because he is not an expert at logic and philosophy. He doesn't have the background to recognize logical fallacies, or how to construct a valid argument.

And that is my whole point; an expert has the background to avoid misconceptions, and an amateur doesn't.

Stan said...

Then we misperceived each other. I understand the decadals just fine. The point I understood you to make is that nothing matters but CO2; nothing else should even be discussed but CO2. If I discuss any issue such as paleodata, I am off base because only CO2 should be discussed. My point was that if CO2 is the only forcing function available on the planet, then there should be a 1:1 correlation between CO2 delta and delta T. There is not.

Then my point was that there are many other factors, many of which are larger than the exertion of CO2, (including methane and water vapor which are both larger). Then my next point was that CO2 saturates, AND the entire absorption-reradiation system saturates, AND that the reflectivity system itself also saturates and goes negative with perfect reflectivity, AND all this based on the minimum albedos for earth and for vapor/clouds as well as black box radiatiative cooling from earth.

My point is that an amateur is not necessarily as ignorant as you presume. And that presupposition is part of the fallacy of insisting that experts must be presupposed to have better, unbiased opinions than amateurs, especially when experts behave outside the accepted parameters of legitimacy.

Now as for experts, how about Dr Ferenc Miskolczi, along with Dr Miklos Zagoni, who claim CO2 is not a serious forcing agent and have equations based on raw data to back it up?

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-7715-Portland-Civil-Rights-Examiner~y2010m1d12-Hungarian-Physicist-Dr-Ferenc-Miskolczi-proves-CO2-emissions-irrelevant-in-Earths-Climate

(Interestingly they agree with my assessment of saturation...)
And paleodata seemingly agrees with their assessment of equilibrium, except with hysteresis.