Monday, May 12, 2008

Warmer? Worse Hurricanes? Cell phone danger?

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) shows temperature variation of the Atlantic Ocean over the past 140 years. The top graph from NOAA, shows the temperature variation, actually measured over 140 years; the AMO has been shown in tree rings going back for "at least the last millennium", according to NOAA, and is therefore not related to Anthropogenic Global Warming. The bottom graph shows that the current phase is positive, meaning that AMO is in its warmer phase of its natural cycle.

Meanwhile, the pressure version of the Atlantic variation clearly shows monthly to annual variations that are also NOT related to AGW.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)is measured in hPa (=1 millibar), showing pressure variations over the Atlantic. Together the AMO and the NAO influence the severity but not the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Not known or shown is the influence of Pacific conditions flowing through to the east toward the Atlantic that might influence hurricane severity. Other data suggests that sun cycles affect these factors.

However, the data shows no connection to AGW, as posited by the now discredited "hockey stick" graph that the IPCC seems dependent upon;

When correctly calculated, the hockey stick no longer exists, and the data shows variability but no trend. AGW does not have data to back it up. In fact, data shows the opposite, as discussed here. The trials of obtaining actual data are also discussed there.

If hurricanes do become stronger due to the increase in AMO, there is no doubt that politicians like Gore will try to pin it on human activity. The evidence says t'aint so. But if the PDO flips back to warm phase in 20 years, while the AMO remains warm phase, warming will be noticable for sure. But it won't be due to human activity or CO2, it will be normal geocycles.

Meanwhile, when will the magnetic poles flip again? Isn't that caused by too many man-made electromagnetic fields? It's all those cell phones... they're gonna kill the globe I tell ya! I have a very compelling graph showing pole shift velocity vs. number of cell phones: it's a 1:1 correlation!!

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