Saturday, August 3, 2013

Climate Change Causes Conflict Changes?

From the BBC:
"Shifts in climate are strongly linked to increases in violence around the world, a study suggests.

US scientists found that even small changes in temperature or rainfall correlated with a rise in assaults, rapes and murders, as well as group conflicts and war.

The team says with the current projected levels of climate change, the world is likely to become a more violent place.

The study is published in Science."

And yes, the climate is changing:

From Climate Depot:
"North Pole Sees Unprecedented July Cold – Arctic Sees Shortest Summer On Record — ‘Normally the high Arctic has about 90 days above freezing. This year there was less than half that’"


How do these things get out into the real world?

First, correlation is not causation. There is no reason to conclude that the world be come more violent purely due to climate change. Violence also might correlate with the price of pickles.

Second, the term "unprecedented" is an obviously false conclusion; There is no data for the arctic zone for the year 7649 BC. They cannot possibly know all the precedents.

Both of these news items might contain factoids that are valid, but the conclusions are not.

1 comment:

A. Naturalist said...

The conclusion IS that there is a strong correlation. You agree with the conclusion and disagree with...?