Nominated For Bogus Leftist Mathematics For 2014

The Biggest Math Story of the Year

"The use of the "one in five" statistic began to unravel almost immediately, as a number of people, most notably University of Michigan economics professor Mark Perry, realized that when this statistic is combined with a second claim that only 12% of student victims of sexual assault report their allegations to law enforcement officials, that they cannot possibly both be true.

OK, let's do some math using crime data from the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor for 2012:

1. Number of female UM students: Approximately 21,000

2. Expected number of sexual assaults if one-in-five women is sexually assaulted in college: 4,200

3. Actual number of reported sexual assaults at UM in 2012: 34

4. Chances of a female UM student being sexually assaulted each year: 1-in-618.

5. Chances over four years that a student will be assaulted while attending college: 4-in-618 or 1-in-155.

That's nowhere close to 1-in-5.

If you accept the White House claim that 88% of college sexual assaults are not reported, you then get:

1. Estimated number of sexual assaults: 283 total, 34 reported (12%) and 249 unreported (88%).

2. Chances of a female student being sexually assaulted each year: 1-in-74 (or 1.35% chance).

3. Chances over four years of a female UM student being sexually assaulted: 1-in-18.5 (or 5.4% chance).

There's still nowhere close to a 1-in-5 (and 20%) chance of a female student being sexually assaulted while attending the University of Michigan, using the White House's own under-reporting statistics. See a similar analysis here for three Pittsburgh-area colleges (University of Pittsburgh, Carnegie Mellon University, and Duquesne University). I think maybe we need a "renewed call for the White House (and DOJ) to report accurate statistics on sexual assault (intimate partner violence)."

Keep in mind that these are NOT rape stats; they are "sexual assault" stats, meaning everything from looking askance to NOT looking askance, on up to and including "Regret Rape", where the female revokes permission months or even years after the event. The Feminista target is "male privilege", the innate and indelible sin attached to all non-females by their female betters. And also attached to female converts (trannys still stink of male privilege, you know).

For your calculating convenience there is an online calculator referenced at the site.