Monday, December 7, 2015

Actual Murder Data, Contra NYT/Obama Hysteria

Murders are at a record low and falling in the U.S.

AND gun ownership and concealed carry are UP.


5 comments:

Hugo Pelland said...

Stan said:
"AND gun ownership and concealed carry are UP."
Where did you see that?

On this page: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1645/guns.aspx
We see % of gun ownership going a little over time, roughly 10% lower today than the 60s-90s max of 50% ownership.

And on this one: http://www.norc.org/PDFs/GSS%20Reports/GSS_Trends%20in%20Gun%20Ownership_US_1972-2014.pdf
The trend is more pronounced, with page 4 showing the "No Gun in Household" up from 48% to 64% between 1980 and 2014.

The number of murders being down is certainly good news, and no, guns are not the only issue; but it's much more complicated than that anyway... And this does not change the fact that the US is still by far the country with the most firearms and most firearms-related accidents/deaths/mass shooting per capita, especially when excluding 3rd-world countries. I like how this page shows the complexity of the issue by listing many statistics:
http://www.vox.com/2015/8/24/9183525/gun-violence-statistics

Stan said...

Well, you're right, I did project that from personal observation. most people who I know well enough to know this about them have gotten concealed carry permits and carry pistols in the past two years. The increase in my state has been phenomenal. If you insist, I can probably find the data on CC permits in MO. Plus with gun sales high, I presume that more people own guns than ever before.

Given the freedom to purchase a gun at the many gun shows, I seriously doubt that anyone (especially VOX) knows anything about gun ownership.

For example, Australia confiscated all firearms except certain long guns. What about other types of violence? The comparison is absurd. The violent mass murders in China tend to be by knife. As they now are in Israel.

Graph #2 is equally absurd: There is no way to know the number of civilian-owned guns in the world; terrorists and revolutionaries have plenty of guns. They can even make AK's because of the loose tolerances.

Graph #3 has been debunked. I'll try to find the piece, but not right now. The comparison is, like many of these, the Black and White fallacy. All but three of these involve either gang warfare or heated personal disputes involving multiple family or ex-friends. These are being compared to mass killings of strangers in the coldness of insanity or terrorism. Would they have happened in the presence of a police state with no guns? No one can answer that.

That's all I have time for. But VOX is far from an unbiased source.

Stan said...

Another data point:


Australia's Gun Ban NOT Working So Well |#NRA

It has now been over 10 years since gun owners in Australia were forced by new law to surrender 640,381 personal firearms to be destroyed by their own Government, a program costing Australia taxpayers more than $500 million dollars. The statistics for the years following the ban are now in:

1. Accidental gun deaths are 300% higher than the pre-1997 ban rate

2. The assault rate has increased 800% since 1991, and increased 200% since the 1997 gun ban.

3. Robbery and armed robbery have increase 20% from the pre-97 ban rate.

4. From immediately after the ban was instituted in 1997 through 2002, the robbery and armed robbery rate was up 200% over the pre-ban rates.

5. In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 171 percent. Learn more at http://www.reasonorforce.com/2010/08/australian-gun-ban-facts-statistics.html

Stan said...

Forgot the source for the above (Quickie search):
http://newsmilitary.com/pages/9691435-australias-gun-ban-not-working-so-well-military-dot-com

Stan said...

Graphs from a scholar:
http://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-more-guns-less-gun-violence-between-1993-and-2013/