Thursday, February 18, 2016

Polling Absurdity

USA Today publishes a poll claiming a statistically close race between Republicans and Democrats:
Against Hillary:

Current Republican frontrunner Donald Trump wins by +2 points, 45% to 43%.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 97%
wins by +1 point, 45% to 44%.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)79%
wins by +4 points, 42% to 46%.

John Kasich smashes Clinton by +11 points, 49% to 38%.

Against Bernie, other than Cruz, the Republican field ekes out a win:

Trump wins by +1 point, 44% to 43%.

Cruz loses by -2 points, 42% to 44%.

Rubio wins by +4 points, 46% to 42%.

Kasich wins by +3 points, 44% to 41%.

But wait. The actual poll is HERE, and the sample size is very small, so that the accuracy is plus/minus 5+%. So claiming that Trump wins by ONE point is a total absurdity, as are all other projections. USA Today has publicized a mathematical fraud. Maybe ALL polls are this fraudulent, I don't know.

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