The Italian earthquake scientists were incarcerated and charged with manslaughter after giving information which failed to predict the monster killer earthquake a week later. Now only one remains in prison. Glenn Harlan Reynolds writes that scientists must not be treated as scapegoats, and in a rare moment, I disagree with his assessment of the situation.
When scientists step outside of the contingent nature of science and issue statements which are absolute, they should, in fact, be held culpable for that error, which is so basic that it is potentially criminal. In this case, one of the seven reportedly issued a statement that there was "no danger" of a serious quake. This is stating something that he could not know. And obviously did not know. It was not a statement grounded in actual science, it was just a guess. And all parties acted in ignorance of the contingent nature of science.
The result of that scientist's false claim is hard to guess as well. Had he admitted that his ability to predict was good only to, say, 40%, would the citizens have behaved differently? Would they have moved somewhere else, or slept in a field instead of their fragile buildings? The answer to that cannot be known either. But I will guess that their behavior would not have changed.
Whether the scientist is guilty of manslaughter is a difficult call, but he definitely was guilty of unscientific behavior on a subject of life and death importance. It would have been better if all parties had been exposed to the contingent nature of ALL science, and had behaved in a fashion which was informed with that knowledge. At a minimum, the scientist should be removed from his position.
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