Saturday, September 9, 2017

People Caused These Hurricanes...?

Global warming. I think it is an observable fact. But:

All global temperature data is corrupt, another observable fact. But:

Let's stipulate that the global warming does, exist. Let's stipulate that CO2 is rising. What is the empirical proof that human-produced CO2 is THE cause of global warming? There are some ways to test this hypothesis (it's only a hypothesis, at this point). What is needed is firm empirical data of output variability due solely to input variation - a transfer function relationship, and accompanying graph.

How can we get that?

1. First we need another planet, identical to earth in composition and history and and dating, but with no humans. OK? Doesn't work? OK.

2. Or we need to be able to adjust human CO2 generation, and observe the actual variability of the output (warming) with the changes in the input (controlled variation of human CO2 input). Hm. Nope, can't do that either.

3. So we have to guess at human system input change in CO2, and then measure the entire earth surface and oceans, top to bottom with complete accuracy and reliability for output change. What does that give us?

First we have only a guess for the input to the system (which incidentally is buried in other, larger simultaneous system inputs, also variable). For the output we have spotty and falsified temperature data which has been jiggered in advance of its use by modellers by the addition of a nonlinear rising function applied to the falling function of the actual source temperature data. Thus we have probably (almost certainly) false system output data for use in computer climate models.

So what we actually have to work with is a guessed input, and a false output. There is no rational transfer function to be derived from this. None.

Now maybe it is possible that a warmer globe will produce stronger, more infrequent storms. But I don't actually know that, and neither do the AGW activists and the model programmers who depend on AGW for their living.

Therefore, in terms of actual knowledge, not Narrative, no one can possibly know that "people caused" these hurricanes. In fact, that statement is at least two serial fallacies removed from empirical factoid status. AND empirical factoid status is always purely contingent: not truth.

So the statement "people caused these hurricanes" is false in its intent and false in its content.

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